The following question arose yesterday evening:
On the streaming portal Twitch you can watch three streamers simultaneously with "Squad Streams". All three players play Among Us on the same turn. In the game with 10 participants, 2 players each become "imposter" and then act as a team, so you know who the imposter colleague is.
How big is the probability that I won't watch an imposter in the squad stream?
I tried it with opposite probability, but unfortunately it didn't work…
Counter-probability already fits.
You have 10 balls. 8 red and 2 blue.
From this you draw 3 without replacing.
Now the simplest question is how likely it is that you will not get a blue.
One way of a tree diagram is sufficient here:
Move: probability on red 8/10
Moving probability on red 7/9
Probability to move on red 6/8
Multiply up. Then you have the probability that there's no imposter:
0.46666 period.
ie: 46 2/3% probability that all 3 balls are red and none are blue.
Conversely, this means that in about 54% of the cases there's at least one imposter in the stream.
Thank you for the detailed and clear answer.