Redeem Microsoft Reward points for a competition?

I have a total of 6,000 points and wanted to redeem them for a competition for the Xbox Series X, but I don't know if this is really real or if Microsoft is just ripping off users. Microsoft's domain is really Microsoft's. Please answer quickly.

Of course this is not a "rip off",

everyone can take part, the chances of winning are simply very slim.

I myself only spend my points on the Xbox Game Pass Ultimate. So I get it for free and then save 12.99 euro every month in the end.

What is the probability 1 of?

Unfortunately I do not know it