Let's say the largest German-speaking streamer (Youtube, Twitch…) MontanaBlack founds its own political party in Germany. What would it look like? Would many choose him, especially his followers / subscribers? Would he create an absolute majority, be in double digits as a percentage, at least clear the 5% hurdle to get into the Bundestag or would he be below 5%? What do you think about that?
He is too insignificant and inexperienced in politics. Apart from the fact that I do not know his views.
Even if all of his subscribers voted for him, not all of whom are 18, he would stay below 5%.
Montanablack would very likely only have his subscription as a voter. As of now, he has 2.61 million fans. In my estimation maybe 40% might be willing to choose him. So around a million
Around 60 million are eligible to vote, so that would be if everyone were entitled to vote
1/60 of the votes
I'm assuming an 80% stake, around 48 million
So that would be 1/48
We're already at less than 5% if everyone assumes that everyone can choose, but I think it is more 60% who can choose what makes it even lower.
In the end, I don't even think that he makes 1 percent unless he teams up with other Youtubers. Maybe they could barely make it and that's nice to say.
Clearly all variables that you do not know for sure and from me that was only estimates you can't make more
First of all, I think the boy is pretty stupid. But he has 2.6 million subscribers on youtube. This corresponds to 3.2% of the German population. If one could mobilize half of it for elections, the boy would have realistic chances to be elected in the European elections.
In terms of numbers in the European elections, yes, but not in the Bundestag.
Even many of his subscribers would not vote for him. I assume that its audience is a bit older. Most will be so reflective that they will not choose him.
Just wanted to make it clear that one should not underestimate the reach of some "influencers".
